Other possibilities: a formal declaration of war by Russia, accompanied by a mass troop mobilization, or nuclear saber-rattling even more worrisome than that of recent weeks. In recent weeks, Ukrainian and Western analysts and officials have gamed out various Victory Day scenarios: Moscow seeking to engineer a decisive battlefield blow in Ukraine’s east, mounting punishing strikes on cities far from the front lines, or formally annexing more territory under only the shakiest of Russian control. Putin, he said, “will need to spin a narrative, they will need to say, proclaim something, show they’ve achieved something, and there’s a limited menu from which to do so.” On a day whose overt theme is glorious victory, however, the Ukraine war offers “very, very slim pickings,” said James Nixey, who heads the Russia-Eurasia program at Chatham House, a British think tank.

Military flyovers will reportedly include a pointed display - the first in more than a decade - of Russia’s airborne “doomsday” command center, a plane meant to carry senior leaders and military officials in the event of a nuclear exchange. On Moscow’s Red Square, Putin, 69, is due to preside over a cavalcade of troops and tanks, rockets and long-range ballistic missiles. Monday’s holiday marks the 77th anniversary of the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany, a day of deep emotional resonance for Russians who still recall a staggering death toll of 27 million compatriots in World War II. Yet this is seen by many as a particularly perilous juncture of the war, as Ukraine and its allies wonder whether Putin, livid over a triumph that has eluded him, will lash out in ways not yet seen in this conflict. Instead, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has achieved near-Churchillian stature as a wartime leader, and Western dignitaries arrive near-daily in Kyiv, lavishing cash, weaponry and expressions of support on Zelensky’s government. Putin’s armies have killed thousands, flattened once-vibrant cities, sent more than 5.7 million people fleeing into exile and inflicted billions of dollars in damage to Ukraine, a country of 44 million people that became a sovereign nation more than three decades ago when the Soviet Union imploded. 24 invasion - can in no way be said to have gone according to plan. The war on Ukraine - the “special military operation,” as the Kremlin dubbed its Feb. “So he’ll have to proclaim one all the more loudly.” “There’s no victory to announce,” said Mark Galeotti, a Russia expert at University College London. That’s a question Russian President Vladimir Putin will have to answer, at least implicitly, when his country marks one of its biggest and most bombastic patriotic holidays, Victory Day, on Monday - a highly choreographed celebration of Moscow’s military might that awkwardly coincides this year with a smaller neighbor’s improbable defiance in the face of a withering 10-week assault. In a war like this one, what does winning even look like?

Victory day holiday